Tag Archives: Treaty of Lisbon

Cameron’s referendum travails make him look an idiot

David Cameron - CC / Flickr

David Cameron - CC / Flickr

David Cameron, as quoted on the BBC News website today:

It looks like this treaty is no longer going to be a treaty, it looks like it is going to become part of European law and that is going to create a new situation.

Does David Cameron simply not understand how the EU works?

Every treaty that has gone before the Treaty of Lisbon has been dealt with the same way: Member States agree a treaty, they ratify it, and it becomes law. Simple. It’s not as if the fact that Vaclav Klaus today put pen to paper that changes the process.

Essentially there have been 2 clear outcomes here for some weeks, indeed since Ireland voted Yes to the Treaty of Lisbon on 2nd October. Either Klaus and Kaczynski would have held out until next year, or they would have caved in (which turned out to be the case). Any Tory Party policy on the issue would have had to contain ideas to deal with either eventuality.

Instead David Cameron today almost seemed surprised, shocked even at the state of affairs, saying to the BBC that he will announce the Conservative Party policy on the issue “later this week”. Later this week? Hell, he’s had about a month to get his eurosceptic rabble in order and come up with a line to take, and he expects us to just accept that he needs a bit more time?

Aside from his U-turn on the issue of whether there should be a referendum, can he not come up with anything better than needing a bit more time? It makes him look a complete idiot, a point not lost on eurosceptic Barry Legg.

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There are 2 excellent candidates for EU Foreign Minister, but there’s not a hope either will be appointed

Carl Bildt - CC / Flickr

Carl Bildt - CC / Flickr

If the second referendum in Ireland on the Treaty of Lisbon this autumn goes yes then the EU is going to have a new foreign policy chief from 2010. The Treaty of Lisbon creates the position of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, aka EU Foreign Minister, merging the current positions of High Representative for CFSP and External Relations Commissioner. So who is going to be in the running?

If it were only to be judged by the amount he puts himself about then Carl Bildt, Swedish Foreign Minister, would probably be a runner. He’s also in the limelight as Sweden currently has the rotating Presidency of the Council. Foreign Policy has a profile of Bildt, and the FT Brussels Blog has more on the power games about the appointment. Essentially the argument goes that Bildt is too outspoken to get the job – people are wary of him because he’s not an in-the-shadows character like Javier Solana. I’m no fan of Bildt from his record as Swedish PM but his experience in foreign affairs is vast and in a Europe controlled by right wing parties then better have a strong and knowledgeable person in the position than a dull technocrat.

Fischer Poster - CC / Flickr

Fischer Poster - CC / Flickr

The outstanding foreign affairs figure on the left who would make an excellent EU Foreign Minister would be former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer. He’s been lacking a role since the end of Schröder’s red-green coalition yet, like Bildt, he’s a pugnacious and knowledgeable individual, someone who would be capable of giving the EU a real voice in foreign affairs.

So what hope that either of these individuals get appointed? Close to zero. Member states would sooner go for some dull technocrat as that makes their lives easy. There’s no way for public pressure to change it (a bloggers’ campaign for Bildt anyone? Not from me anyway) so don’t hold your breath waiting for a new and coherent EU foreign policy.

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Topolanek on the Treaty of Lisbon (Czech Gaffe-o-Meter score: 2)

gaffe-o-meter-2s1As reported by the Irish Times:

[...] all eyes were on the new president of the European Council, Czech prime minister Mirek Topolanek. Outlining his priorities for the next six months, he surprised MEPs by announcing that if a referendum were held on the Lisbon Treaty in the Czech Republic, the Czechs would reject it like the Irish.

He described the treaty as average and “somewhat worse than the Nice Treaty”

What is Topolanek on about? While what he might say about the Czechs and a referendum might be true, but is he deliberately setting out to damage the prospects of a Yes in Ireland? As for the statement that the Treaty of Lisbon is somewhat worse than Nice – that’s just daft from a politician whose party has helped its passage through the Czech Parliament.

Apologies it’s taken me so long to notice this – rather hidden by all the art exhibition stuff.

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If there’s a problem call Tony

Tony Blair - CC / Flickr

Tony Blair - CC / Flickr

So here we go again. The EU has a multitude of problems on its hands: Russia turning off the gas, the Gaza conflict brewing, and no-one really knowing what to do about the economic downturn, least of all the Commission. The Czech Presidency has already made a few gaffes, and there are sure to be a few more from Klaus and co before the end of their 6 months in the chair.

So what does Europe need? A statesman apparently… Today’s FT (more at Euractiv) is reporting that the idea of having Tony Blair as President of the European Council is doing the rounds once more, back on the agenda one year after Sarkozy originally backed the idea. It seems that Sarko’s clout in the French Presidency has made a few people sit up and think…

But hold on a minute. Why would this idea be any better now than it was 12 months ago? OK, we know what can be done if the EU has some energetic leadership, but a few other factors have changed decisively against Blair. Firstly Blair does not seem to have had much of an impact as Middle East Envoy – would he be a sane face for the EU in that issue? Secondly, two of the major issues facing the EU – economic matters and gas supplies – are a mixture of market matters and foreign policy. Would Blair grandstanding be any good to fix those things? Seems to me that the case for one tough president is stronger than ever, rather than a statesman in the European Council and a weak flaccid lump in the Commission.

And then there’s also the small matter of the referendum in Ireland on the Treaty of Lisbon… If Blair is rumoured once more to want the top job is that going to make it any more or less likely that the Irish are going to vote Yes?

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David Miliband as EU Foreign Minister (or not?)

David MilibandWelt am Sonntag reported yesterday that David Miliband might be a candidate for the EU Foreign Minister High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, the foreign affairs position created by the Treaty of Lisbon. A FCO spokesperson has made a very bland statement that Miliband is working on his current tasks as UK Foreign Minister and does not have his eye on something at EU level. The article in Welt am Sonntag also speculates that there is some sort of new package deal – that the UK could live with Jean Claude Juncker as President of the European Council if Miliband took the Foreign Affairs role.

So is all of this likely, and is it desirable?

First of all I would be very happy for Miliband to take up some role in the EU. He’s a clever, communicative, coherent, intelligent and pro-European politician. He takes the EU seriously, and as far as I can tell he’s the only current UK cabinet minister that’s reasonably well regarded in Brussels. Having said that taking Miliband out of UK politics for 5 years or more would be seriously damaging for Labour and for his own career – after all Miliband is 42 now and is widely tipped to be a candidate for Labour leader once Brown quits or loses a general election. In the short term rumours of a Miliband exit would further damage a rather weak Brown cabinet, within which Miliband is one of the few stars.

Which leads me to the issue of whether Miliband as EU Foreign Minister is likely… When it comes to EU institutional logic then it looks like a sensible deal – Juncker would be European Council President, presumably with Barroso going for a further term as Commission President, and then a younger person from the left and from a larger EU Member State (Miliband) as EU Foreign Minister. But set against the background of UK politics and the Brown government’s present problems, and Miliband’s age and stage of his career, I reckon it’s still highly unlikely.

[UPDATE 23.10.09]
It’s still far from being a reality, but it seems there’s a little more to Miliband’s candidacy now, especially as Blair’s stock seems to have waned a little. See today’s Guardian, and this good analysis from the Economist’s Charlemagne blog.

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