Schizophrenic socialists and poker playing conservatives

pse-blurChange or die is the message to the PES from Poul Nyrup Rasmussen on Labourlist today, and he has this to say about the EP:

We now face the least progressive European Parliament in its history, with a far more eurosceptic and nationalist right-wing than ever before. Moreover, we also risk seeing a more assertive right-wing European Commission

But the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament (PASD) is already up against it – stick to the old ways of playing the game, or stick their necks on the line?

One particular problem is neatly summarised by the Eurosocialist blog, namely the game being played between the left and right in the EP regarding the allocation of the top positions in the EP. Joesph Daul of the EPP Group is openly playing a game against the PASD, stating that the left must back Barroso as Commission President before any deal could be struck to ensure that the EPP backs a leftist candidate for the Presidency of the European Parliament for the second half of the parliamentary term.

Daul it seems is playing a good game, he’s putting the left in a corner, making it look like they lose either way – back Barroso and the Portuguese is strengthened, or not get the Presidency of the Parliament and the old two-parties-control-the-game in the EP is broken, at the expense of the left. You can just imagine Schulz scratching his belly and wondering what to make of this, even with a few extra Italian MEPs in his camp. Does the left stick to its ideology and lose out on all of the top positions, or does Schulz lose the position as EP President that he allegedly craves?

If I were in the shoes of a leftist MEP I would refuse to play the game with the EPP, and aim to develop a clear and coherent opposition to the right in the EP throughout the next 5 years. That doesn’t need a socialist as the President of the EP to be achieved, and might help the left determine what it stands for before the 2014 elections. I somehow suspect that won’t be the way many MEPs in the PASD will see it. Contrast that to Poul’s statement and the position of the left looks rather schizophrenic.

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Tories in the EP favouring symbolism over influence

So David Cameron is finally starting to make good his pledge to take the Conservatives out of the European People’s Party in the European Parliament, as covered by the FT Brussels blog, Richard Corbett and Iain Dale. There’s of course a lot of bluster about the whole thing, and plenty of inaccuracies too. Here’s an effort to set things straight.

Firstly, the Conservatives are part of the EPP-ED Group in the European Parliament, and they will leave this group. The Conservatives are part of the ED (European Democrats) adjunct to the group, meaning that where the EPP and Tory manifestoes diverged at the 2004 elections the Tories are not obliged to follow the complete group line; in practice the Tories vote with the EPP on 80-90% of legislation currently.

The Conservatives are not part of the European People’s Party so they would not be bound by a common manifesto for the EP elections as agreed by the EPP party. So strictly speaking the Tories are leaving the EPP-ED Group in the European Parliament, not leaving the EPP. This may sound like a technicality but in Brussels it’s rather significant as the size of a group (not a party) determines the allocation of the important jobs in the European Parliament, and the degree to which the Tories are bound by EPP policies has been over-stated.

This leads us on to what the Conservatives will lose by leaving the EPP-ED. All the juicy jobs in the EP – President, Vice Presidents, Committee Chairs, Rapporteurs – are dished out according to the size of a political group. UK Tory Neil Parrish is currently Chair of the Agriculture Committee – he only has this job because the Tories are part of the EPP-ED. Essentially by leaving the EPP-ED the Tories would limit their ability to influence legislation in the EP as the positions of influence would be allocated to other centre-right MEPs.

Cameron of course intends to create a new political group as a replacement for the EPP-ED. This needs 25 MEPs from 7 Member States (not 6 as has been widely reported – those are the old rules), and there is a complete lack of parties in other European countries that believe in the same sorts of things that the Tories do. ODS from the Czech Republic are cited as the most likely allies, but its leader Topolanek says the party has not ruled out the possibility of staying in the EPP. The party’s founder, Vaclav Klaus (President of the Czech Republic) is a climate change denier – does that fit Cameron’s environmental policies?

Other possible Tory allies are even more unsavoury – Law & Justice (PiS) from Poland, the party of the Kaczyński twins, has a questionable record on issues such as gay rights and statements about the death penalty. Lega Nord and the Dansk Folkeparti are even more unsavioury. LabourList is even tougher on this, but they get their facts wrong – ODS are in the EPP-ED currently, while PiS, Lega Nord and Dansk Folkeparti are all members of the UEN Group in the EP, a group that is essentially nastier and more conservative than the EPP-ED.

So is it better for Cameron to team up with a bunch of weird traditionalists and regionalists in the EP, or keep his MEPs in isolation in Brussels? On balance he should probably do the latter if – as seems obvious – he cares only about presentation in London rather than about influence in Brussels. MEPs without a group can speak and can vote, but cannot become committee chairs and are highly unlikely to be rapporteurs.

Essentially this is a battle between symbolism and influence, and symbolism looks to have triumphed.

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Cameron: time to make up your mind on the EPP issue

President of the EPP Party Wilfried Martens has just upped the pressure on David Cameron by asking for a clear decision by April from the Tory leader as to whether the UK Conservatives will sit in the EPP-ED group in the European Parliament after the elections in June. This is at odds with the Cameron position which is to take a decision on this matter after the EP elections.

The position for Martens and the EPP is quite clear – they reckon the EPP-ED will be the biggest group in the EP after the elections even without the UK Tories. With the election now a matter of months away they want to try to get together a manifesto, and without knowing the composition of the parliamentary group that’s no simple task.

So what about Cameron? Opinion polls look good for Cameron and the Tories, but the converse is the case for their likely awkward squad partners, ODS from Czech Republic who were wiped out in local elections in the autumn of 2008.

Then there is the thorny issue of political groups in the EP – in the new term a group will need 25 MEPs from 7 countries. 25 MEPs will be easy enough – the Tories will get that on their own. But will Cameron be able to find partners from 6 other Member States that share his uneasy mix of compassionate [sic] conservatism and euroscepticism? Law and Justice in Poland would surely not count as possible allies given their stance on gay rights.

We could hence see Martens and the EPP going ahead without Cameron and then, with a good result in the UK under his belt, Cameron appealing once more to the EPP to ensure his MEPs are not left without allies and influence in the EP with the other non-attached members.

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