1. Nikon D60 SLR, with 18-55mm and 70-300mm lenses, and a 8Gb and 4Gb SD card
2. GorillaPod SLR flexible tripod
3. Nikon charger, spare D60 battery, and compact Apple adaptors for the charger (UK, European plugs)
4. Manfrotto KLYP iPhone 4S case, and Manfrotto Mini Led Light for filming
5. Lytro camera (for experimental photography!)
6. Charger for iPhone and Lytro, with UK, European plugs, with 4 way USB cable
7. Old Canon camera bag (everything else fits in here!)

Not shown: iPhone 4S.

Then, you say, how do you get all that stuff uploaded? Of course anything from the iPhone can be uploaded directly, but from the D60 SD cards, and Lytro built in 8Gb storage, I need a computer, so I will also have my MacBook Pro 13″ with me, and Arctic Sunrise has wifi, although with very limited bandwidth. My Huawei E585 Mifi will come in handy too when I have a 3G signal!

Thoughts? Anything I am missing (within reason – I’m not exactly flush with cash)? I also own a GoPro Hero 1, and have access to an old compact Canon IXUS camera, but I think neither of these better accomplish what I need than the kit already listed. I also have a full size tripod, but this is just too large to lug around.

This post follows posts about EPP, PES and other candidates for President of the European Commission, and High Rep for Foreign Policy.

So who are likely candidates for this position?

Anders Fogh Rasmussen [Wikipedia]
Current position: Secretary General of NATO
Nationality: Danish
Party politics: Liberal (Venstre, ALDE)

Mentioned in this post as a possible liberal candidate for the European Commission, the European Council position may instead be a better fit for Anders Fogh. A previous Prime Minister of Denmark, with international political experience, he would be a middle-of-the-road candidate who would have the respect of the Heads of State and Government around the European Council table, yet would bring a more determined and communicative style than Herman Van Rompuy. However he would not be favoured by the current Danish government, and comes from a non-Eurozone country and from a small political party.

Jean-Claude Juncker [Wikipedia]
Current position: Prime Minister of Luxembourg
Party politics: Christian Democrat (EPP)

Prime Minister of Luxembourg since 1995, and President of the Eurogroup 2005-2013, the wily Juncker is a well known Brussels character. Known for his ability to strike deals in EU business, his skills and connections could be useful in the top position, although his enduring commitment to EU integration may make him a questionable choice from some Member States. Also a grey relative unknown, is he just simply too similar to Van Rompuy? However he is from a Eurozone country, and from the EPP party.

Fredrik Reinfeldt [Wikipedia]
Current position: Prime Minister of Sweden
Party politics: Moderates (EPP)

Mentioned as a possible EPP candidate for the Commission, the outgoing Swedish Prime Minister would also be a suitable candidate for the European Council position. With a Swedish general election on 14th September 2014, an official Reinfeldt candidacy would be a last minute thing, but his measured approach and ability to build bridges to the UK could be to his advantage. Coming from the EPP helps, while coming from a non-Eurozone country does not assist.

Mario Monti [Wikipedia]
Position: Former Prime Minister of Italy
Party politics: Centrist

A former interim Prime Minister in Italy, and a former member of the European Commission, Monti has the Brussels connections, and the conciliatory ability, to keep the business of the European Council on track. While he personally seems to be centre-right, he has tried to stay out of clear political allegiances at EU level. While a technocratic figure like Monti might not be the sort of inspiring face the EU might need, but he would be a safe choice.

Dalia Grybauskaitė [Wikipedia]
Current position: President of Lithuania
Party politics: Centre right, although not officially party political

Mentioned in the post about EPP Commission President candidates, Grybauskaitė has experience of the highest office as President of her country, a position that requires her to be above party politics. She would bring a steely determination and assured competence to the role. Coming from a non-Eurozone country might count against her, although as she is centre-right that might assist her candidacy.

Long shots
It has always been rumoured that when Angela Merkel stops as Chancellor of Germany that she could step up to EU level – but would she want this position in 2014? Other long shots could be Danilo Türk (former President of Slovenia) and Toomas Hendrik Ilves (current President of Estonia, and a former MEP). Possible centre-left candidates could be Helle Thorning-Schmidt (Prime Minister of Denmark), or Alfred Gusenbauer (former Chancellor of Austria).

[UPDATE 19.5.13, 2100]: Thanks to comments, John Bruton and Jerzy Buzek should be added as long shots.

As ever, comments and additional suggestions are most welcome!

Image credits – all Creative Commons / Sharealike licensed
Dalia Grybauskaitė by Saeima | Fredrik Reinfeldt by SWE EUPress | Anders Fogh Rasmussen by Chatham House | Jean-Claude Juncker by European Council | Mario Monti by Italian Embassy

This post follows posts about EPP, PES and other candidates for President of the European Commission, and President of the European Council.

So who are the likely candidates?

Alexander Stubb [Wikipedia]
Current position: Minister for European Affairs and Foreign Trade of Finland
Party politics: National Coalition Party (EPP)

Currently Europe Minister, and formerly Foreign Minister, Stubb is the rising star of Finnish international politics. A former MEP and expert on EU politics after his time as a Professor at the College of Europe, Stubb knows EU foreign affairs very well. He comes from a Eurozone country, and from the EPP, the EU’s biggest political force. His administrative competence would be welcome in comparison to the current incumbent, although his hyperactive honesty on social media might irritate some traditionalists.

Radek Sikorski [Wikipedia]
Current position: Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland
Party politics: Civic Platform (EPP)

A former journalist, and political refugee in the UK during the 1980s, Sikorski combines Thatcherite free-market conservatism and a determined commitment to EU integration. The thawing of Brussels-Warsaw relations in recent years owe a lot to him and his Prime Minister Donald Tusk. His party’s presence in the EPP, and Poland being one of the EU’s rising powers, may assist him, while his outspoken positions – not least his critique of the UK, and calls for Germany to be more assertive – would worry some.

Kristalina Georgieva [Wikipedia]
Current position: European Commissioner for International Cooperation, Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Response
Nationality: Bulgarian
Party politics: not party-political

The surprise in the current European Commission, Georgieva has been determined and effective in the Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Response role, just quietly getting on with the job while critique has been levelled at other Commissioners. Georgieva was previously employed in other international organisations – this separation from party politics could be an advantage, but would she be adequately respected by Member States’ foreign ministers? Her nationality might also count against her. Ashton has been low profile in the High Rep role since 2009, and while Georgieva would undoubtedly be more effective, would she be able to give the position a higher profile?

Frans Timmermans [Wikipedia]
Current position: Minister of Foreign Affairs of Netherlands
Party politics: PvdA (PES)

Mentioned in a previous post about possible PES candidates for President of the European Commission, Timmermans is currently foreign minister in Netherlands and could hence realistically perform the High Rep job in Brussels. Further, if as happened in 2009, a party political balance is sought for the top positions, the PES could once more end up with the High Rep position. Timmermans’s nationality and international experience would assist him.

Frank-Walter Steinmeier [Wikipedia]
Current position: Leader of the Opposition in the Bundestag, Germany
Party politics: SPD (PES)

The nearly man of German centre-left politics, and a former foreign minister in Berlin, Steinmeier would be a safe (if somewhat uninspiring) choice. His nomination would to a certain extent depend on the outcome of the 2013 Bundestag election, and what role – if any – the SPD would play after the election. The question would be whether Germany would seek a foreign policy portfolio in Brussels rather than something economic.

Long shot
Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt would be a fascinating candidate, but does he want the position, and might his outspoken views over the years mean others would not want him? That is the reason he does not feature in the top five.

As ever, comments and additional suggestions are most welcome!

Image credits – all Creative Commons / Sharealike licensed
Frans Timmermans by United Nations – Geneva | Radosław Sikorski by misiek_beauchamp | Alexander Stubb by Estonian Foreign Ministry | Frank-Walter Steinmeier by SPD in Niedersachsen | Kristalina Georgieva by EU Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection

Liberals
The third force in the European Parliament is the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe. From this party two strong characters could be in the running. Former Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen [Wikipedia] is nearing the end of his time as Secretary General of NATO, but may be a better fit for another Brussels position (such as President of the European Council). Neelie Kroes [Wikipedia] is the only member of the current Commission who had a citizen campaign for her re-nomination, but does she have stomach for more political work, now aged over 70? Guy Verhofstadt [Wikipedia], leader of the ALDE Group in the European Parliament and former Belgian Prime Minister, would love to the Commission President, but I am not sure anyone else would love the prospect. Cecilia Malmström [Wikipedia] has been an effective member of the European Commission, and is determined and dynamic, but I suspect is not adequately well known to achieve the top job.

Greens
The European Greens will hold a primary to choose their two top EP candidates, and presumably one or other of those people would be a nominee to be Commission President too. The best known green at EU level – Daniel Cohn-Bendit [Wikipedia] has stated however that he wishes to retire from the EP in 2014. Cohn-Bendit’s co-chair in the EP Rebecca Harms [Wikipedia], or her German colleague Reinhard Bütikofer [Wikipedia] who is chair of the European Greens Party, might be possibles. Could the best known Green of them all, former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer [Wikipedia] make a comeback?

Others
In the current European Commission, Kristalina Georgieva [Wikipedia] has been one of the most effective members, although she is not party political. Could there be a role for her as a compromise candidate somehow?

Image credits – all Creative Commons / Sharealike licensed
Anders Fogh Rasmussen by Chatham House | Joschka Fischer by das blaue Sofa

So who are the likely candidates?

Donald Tusk [Wikipedia]
Current role: Prime Minister of Poland

The normalisation of relations between Poland and the EU institutions in recent years owes a lot to the work of Donald Tusk and his centre-right administration. Angela Merkel is even reported to be favourable to the idea that Tusk could become President of the European Commission. Tusk has been Prime Minister since 2007, so now might be a good time to seek a move to Brussels. The poor quality of his English, and that Poland is not a Eurozone country, might count against him.

Viviane Reding [Wikipedia]
Current role: Vice President of the European Commission, and Commissioner for Justice, Fundamental Rights and Citizenship
Nationality: Luxembourg

There is nowhere else for Reding to go. Luxembourg is too big for her ego, and she has been a member of the Commission for three terms already. Issues such as mobile phone roaming charges, and efforts to get women on boards of companies in Europe show her political commitment. The question is while she is heavily rumoured in Brussels as a likely candidate, would anyone else actually want her? She is from a core Eurozone country, and knows the Brussels corridors of power well. However she is from a tiny country and has views that are not mainstream for the EPP.

Dalia Grybauskaitė [Wikipedia]
Current role: President of Lithuania

The ‘Iron Lady’ of the politics of the New Member States, Grybauskaitė is a former member of the European Commission (2004-2009) who has since been President of her country. Lithuania will also hold the Presidency of the Council of the EU in the second half of 2013, increasing her profile further. Her nationality (from a non-Eurozone country) could count against her, but she would be a solid, reassuring and reliable candidate, with experience of the highest levels of EU decision making from the Member State and Commission perspectives.

José Manuel Barroso [Wikipedia]
Current role: President of the European Commission
Nationality: Portuguese

What, Barroso, again? EU politics watchers collectively groaned when Barroso refused to rule out a third term as President of the Commission. The Portuguese would be a case of better the devil you know. Always keen to find favour with the large Member States, and himself not strong enough to really challenge them, there would be little enthusiasm for his re-nomination. The ongoing Dalli scandal may eventually put an end to his chances.

Fredrik Reinfeldt [Wikipedia]
Current role: Prime Minister of Sweden

Sweden’s two-term Prime Minister has piloted his country through turbulent economic times relatively unscathed, but a 2014 election, and decreasing support for his coalition partners in his government, could mean the end of the road in national politics for him. He would be a good compromise candidate, and he is also one of the few allies of the UK. Sweden not being a member of the Eurozone would count against him.

Christine Lagarde [Wikipedia]
Current role: Managing Director of the IMF
Nationality: French

A former Finance Minister in France, Lagarde has been at the IMF since 2011. She has considerable international experience, and national political experience, and comes from a core Eurozone country. She would have to end her IMF position after only 3 years to take up the job, but her calm assurance and determined manner might make her a viable candidate.

Outsiders
Jyrki Katainen (Prime Minister of Finland), Enda Kenny (Taoiseach of Ireland), Michel Barnier (European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services), Valdis Dombrovskis (Prime Minister of Latvia).

If I’m missing anyone please do suggest names in the comments. Please note that there will be an additional follow-up post about possible cross party compromise candidates, and a further post about the position of High Rep for EU Foreign Policy.

[UPDATE 11.5.2013, 1430]: Lagarde and Dombrovskis added thanks to suggestions from Twitter.

Image credits – all Creative Commons / Sharealike licensed
Donald Tusk by President of the European Council | Viviane Reding by World Economic Forum | Dalia Grybauskaitė by Saeima | José Manuel Barroso by World Economic Forum | Fredrik Reinfeldt by SWE EUPress | Christine Lagarde by World Bank Photo Collection

The Danish Ministry of Justice, in the final page of this note (in Danish, PDF), has once more thrust the issue of referendums in Danish-EU relations back onto the political agenda. The judgment of the Ministry is that ratification of the Agreement on a Unified Patent Court [PDF] would be a transfer of sovereignty from Denmark to the European Union, meaning Article 20 of the Danish Constitution applies. This stipulates that any such transfer of sovereignty must be approved either by a super majority of 5/6 of the Danish parliament, the Folketing, or a referendum must be held. A summary of the constitutional implications can be found in Politiken in English here, and more about the whole issue of the Court and EU patents from Wikipedia here.

Prime Minister Helle Thorning Schmidt’s reaction to the Ministry’s opinion was rather predictable – that the Patent Court issue is so technical that a referendum should not be held, and parliament should ratify the agreement. Quotes from her, in Danish, from DR can be found here.

Thorning’s problem is that there are three parties in the Folketing that would oppose the ratification – the Danish People’s Party (22 seats), Liberal Alliance (9 seats) and the Red-Green Alliance (12 seats). Opposition from the People’s Party, and one of the other two, would be enough to prevent the 5/6 majority. So – surprise, surprise – it is the People’s Party who have been strongest demanding a referendum (here, in Danish), and the Liberal Alliance has made the same demand according to BT (here, in Danish).

So what should Thorning do?

She could, like Lars Løkke Rasmussen before her, try to deal with the People’s Party, giving them something in return for their support of the Patent Court. The problem is that her government was elected in large part to break the reliance that Lars Løkke Rasmussen’s previous government had on the People’s Party – dealing with them would look like a betrayal. Denmark could theoretically not ratify, and put itself in the same position as Italy and Spain and not be part of the Court, but as Thorning has rightly said, for an open, small economy with intellectually intensive industries like Denmark this latter option makes no sense.

So – like it or not – Thorning is likely to have to go down the route of holding a referendum about the Patent Court. This, if played right, could actually be an opportunity. This is because the Patent Court referendum could be bundled together with votes on two of Denmark’s three EU opt-outs – on the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy, and Police and Judicial Cooperation in Criminal Matters. Thorning’s government said it would hold a referendum on these opt outs anyway, but in 2012 postponed a decision to do so until turbulence in the Eurozone decreased. The need to hold a vote on the Patent Court could therefore present the opportunity to vote on all three matters at the same time, in three separate questions on the ballot paper.

While I am no fan of referendums, surely going for a three-question referendum on the two opt outs and the Patent Court would be a better bet than having to deal with the Danish People’s Party?

[Note: other EU countries face similar issues with the Patent Court. Ireland will hold a referendum on the issue, as confirmed on 1st May, and could this issue even trigger the UK's referendum lock?]

Anyway, thanks to the joys of Google Cache, here is a PDF of the original blog entry.

Maybe the next blog entry should be one explaining the Streisand Effect to wannabe comms people in the Brussels corridors of power?

[UPDATE: 10.5.13, 17:20 - the blog piece has now been reinstated on the College of Europe blog]

[NOTE: I am an alumnus of the College of Europe. See, we're not all slaves to the Commission!]

All of this work has now culminated in the launch of a new website – FreeMovement.net – that went online yesterday, and has been covered in this week’s New Europe newspaper in Brussels. The basic idea is that if you cross a border and are subjected to a check then you report it. This can be done on the website, or through an iPhone and an Android app. The site is an application of the open source Ushahidi tool.

The idea is that reports from citizens should help work out the patterns of border checks, and that this data could then help push the European Commission to conduct proper investigations about breaches of Schengen. At the moment it seems that some borders – notably in and out of France (especially to Italy), and Denmark-Germany, are hot spots. But as the site develops that pattern may change.

Anyway, if you are a regular border-crosser then do have a look at the site and report breaches as and when you encounter them!